If this question resolves, what is the chance that givewell an organisation has ceased to exist in a form similar to it’s current form?

This question must actually resolve - it is a question about organisational change, not existential risk.

This question will still resolve positively if:

• GiveWell becomes part of another organisation

• more than 60% of staff move to a new organisation at once

• if it changes its name.

Situations where this question would resolve negatively include but are not limited to:

• All GiveWell’s staff move to other organisations, but not the whole staff. eg fewer than 60% move to the same organisation. 

• GiveWell runs out of funding and has to close down

• GiveWell has a scandal and ceases to exist

  Jan 6, 10:59am: If this question resolves, will GiveWell exist in 2031? → Will GiveWell exist in 2031? (X-risk doesn't count)