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I don't like the focus of the comments on China's economic performance. China went through the shock of Covid in the beginning of 2023 and in the winter they had quite a nasty flu and pneumonia season. Definitely harder than 2022 imho.

Yes order for 500M at 50% for those that disagree.

Relative to 2020-2022, it has had an economic rebound with a good forecast from the IMF. Relative to the rest of the world, it's peaceful and orderly. Xi may be slipping a little having lost Time's Person of the Year to Taylor Swift, but China as a whole had things relatively untough.

@Panfilo This is a vibe based market though. And the vibe for china has clearly continued to slip this year. 20% unemployment rate for youths. Mass protests that lead to the govt reversing its Covid rules. A slow moving real estate collapse. . . . As for China’s positives, sure. But you could say all the same things about the U.S. However, in terms of vibes, I think most Americans would say it’s been a tough year.

Notice that the word described in the market is "tough". China may have a challenging year in 2023, but I don't think it is tough enough to use the word "tough".

I think the creator means a sharp housing shock and an economic contraction. However, China's economic growth expectations are higher than the predictions made at the beginning of 2023. It's hard to say this has been a tough year.

@quther My nerdy first grader came home from school a couple of weeks ago crying. Some kids were teasing him and he didn’t get an A+ on a test. I put my arm around him, and said I was sorry that he had such a tough day. He then told me that it wasn’t a tough day, it was a challenging one. I sent him to bed without any dinner. (I think the two words are generally used interchangeably and have more to do with the speakers tone that it’s meaning.)

There's a recent nationwide pneumonia outbreak in China among children.

That can make this resolve YES.

Lol this market at 81%. Let's use some reflexivity against Nathan, guys!

China’s Age of Malaise | The New Yorker

A Crisis of Confidence Is Gripping China’s Economy - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

@bohaska Insurance.

Also, maybe a way this market can resolve YES
- Covid-19 started. I tested positive on Christmas 2022, and the entire giant outbreak that came after restrictions were removed could count as something bad

So, how will this be arbitrated in the end?

@LedgerWest vibes. Do you think China has had a tough year?

@NathanpmYoung https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PD1rDHYFpaU

China’s Economy is Weaker Than You Think

If you just look at official figures, China's economy is growing well above the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. But there are a lot...

bad vibes only fam

@NathanpmYoung

For more info watch these by Wall Street Journal. The issue of full time children and housing crisis. Chinese youth are lying flat or even letting it rot.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932023_Chinese_property_sector_crisis?oldformat=true#2023

@footgun Has this really enacted itself in the real world?

@NathanpmYoung What do you mean?

@footgun Like there hasn't been a collapse so far.

@NathanpmYoung

I think it has.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-66436582

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/03/chinas-urban-youth-unemployment-crisis.html

China exports see biggest drop for three years

Global demand for Chinese goods has fallen as the cost of living and rising interest rates bite.

@NathanpmYoung There are about a million (hyperbole) stories of people losing their life savings on apartments that will never be built.

I mean it's doesn't seem that tough so far

What's the baseline of toughness? Tough relative to what?

@NicoDelon Forget it, Nic, it's Chinatown…

It is always a tough year in China.

Great market!