Will “the market” show another change in percentage of >50% by the time it resolves?
Will “the market” show another change in percentage of >50% by the time it resolves?
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510Ṁ15kresolved Apr 3
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@MarcusAbramovitch Too late, this market just closed. Not sure why it closed 3 hours earlier than "The Market".
predictedNO 2y
@JosephNoonan Just noticed this! I live on the East coast, and forgot about time zone differences 😬
@NathanNguyen Yeah, I was kind of suspecting that. I'm in the eastern time zone, too, so I noticed that this market closed at the same time stated in the description of "The Market" if you don't convert the time zones.
predictedYES 2y
@Shrewdsun Thought it was between any two moment. I’ll keep my position but quite unlikely to happen
The market has high liquidity and is chock full of limit orders. I don't think we'll be seeing a massive swing anytime soon.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.