By end of 2030, English speakers will be able to fluently communicate with Spanish speakers using a translation device
9
150Ṁ2732031
90%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Goal of this market is to see whether a translation technology will be developed that will allow people speaking different languages to communicate with each other in person without requiring one to learn another's language
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
How good and how frictionless does it have to be? Would something like GPT-4o count?
@Nat It’s close. Seems like the English speaker was deliberately enunciating his words, and they were having a conversation that you’d find in a beginner’s Spanish textbook. I’d be interested to see a more stringent test.
@MarkIngraham8bfe This site says the best translation service is Google Translate. I don’t consider this something that currently allows fluent communication
Related questions
Related questions
By 2040, will there be audio translation tech that's a full substitute for knowing a foreign language?
90% chance
Will I be fluent in 3 languages by 2030
20% chance
Will we be able to communicate with dogs in English, by 2030?
18% chance
Will we be able to communicate with dogs in English, by 2025?
5% chance
Will I learn a substantial amount of Spanish by the end of 2025?
48% chance
Will >300k people know Esperanto fluently by the end of 2040?
29% chance
By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts
23% chance
Will AI translators be as good as humans before 2030?
89% chance
Will Animal Communication be Translated by 2030?
38% chance
Will AI extend English before 2032?
59% chance