Will the number of religiously unaffiliated Americans in 2023 increase from 2022 on the PRRI Survey?
18
166
350
May 1
3%
chance

The trend is clearly up but the last data point is kinda high compared to the trend. The report will probably come out in February.

YES if the next report shows an increase from 2022 to 2023. 50% if it is equal to one decimal place as shown in the chart.

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@NateWatson looks like this resolves to NO https://www.prri.org/research/religious-change-in-america/

Table 2 says "26" without a decimal point, but everything points to the exact value being less than 26.8:

• The first three columns allow us to calculate 10.4+18.1-2.5 = 26.0

• 26 being the result of rounding to the nearest integer implies the un-rounded value is <26.5

• Page 48 of the full report [1] shows 1436/5627 = 25.52% unaffiliated in survey data

@punting The data on page 48 is raw and would presumably need some sort of demographic correction to get the final number but the other two things you pointed to seem pretty solid to me. I will resolve NO if I don’t hear any objection.