Conditional on a Sicily-mainland bridge NOT being built, will unemployment in Sicily decrease wrt to Italy?
Mini
1
Ṁ5
2046
45%
chance

If this market resolves NO https://manifold.markets/Ernie/bridge-built-connecting-mainland-it?r=TmFkaWFNYXRzaXVr I will call the year in which the market resolves t, the previous year t-1 and the next year t+1. I will compute (U(t+1) - U(t-1))/U(t) where U is the unemployment from ISTAT (http://dati.istat.it/Index.aspx?QueryId=20744&lang=en) for Sicily and for Italy as a whole. If the result is strictly smaller (with sign) for Sicily I will resolve YES as soon as the data becomes available for year t+1. Otherwise I will resolve NO. What I am trying to measure is the relative change in unemployment.

If bridge construction is started (that market resolves YES) I will resolve N/A.

If ISTAT data becomes unavailable I will attempt to substitute it with some other reliable source or, failing that, also resolve N/A.

If significant territorial changes happen to Italy and/or Sicily that would make the data on unemployment meaningless, I will attempt to track down the unemployment figure corresponding to the territory of Italy and Sicily in 2023 or resolve N/A if I do not manage to.

Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030
32% chance. At least some work must have started and project must be funded and on track Connecting each sides mainland, not islands (Although stopovers or steps at islands are fine) You'll be able to travel above water not flying between the countries
#Infrastructure
#Italy
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If this market resolves NO https://manifold.markets/Ernie/bridge-built-connecting-mainland-it?r=TmFkaWFNYXRzaXVr I will call the year in which the market resolves t

If I understand correctly, this market will definitely resolve on January 1st, 2031. And not based on whether the bridge is built, but whether

At least some work must have started and project must be funded and on track

So your question might likely not measure the effects of the bridge having been built and increased economic activity, as it seems like the bridge opening is currently estimated to happen after 2031?

https://manifold.markets/NadiaMatsiuk/conditional-on-a-sicilymainland-bri?r=TmFkaWFNYXRzaXVr

Conditional on a Sicily-mainland bridge being built, will unemployment in Sicily decrease wrt to Italy?
50% chance. If this market resolves YES https://manifold.markets/Ernie/bridge-built-connecting-mainland-it?r=TmFkaWFNYXRzaXVr I will call the year in which the bridge is finished (defined as the year when the first 100 cars cross it) t, the previous year t-1 and the next year t+1. I will compute (U(t+1) - U(t-1))/U(t) where U is the unemployment from ISTAT (http://dati.istat.it/Index.aspx?QueryId=20744&lang=en) for Sicily and for Italy as a whole. If the result is strictly smaller (with sign) for Sicily I will resolve YES as soon as the data becomes available for year t+1. Otherwise I will resolve NO. What I am trying to measure is the relative change in unemployment. Example: the bridge is finished in 2029. Unemployment for Sicily in 2028 was 14%, 16% in 2029, and 11% in 2030. Unemployment for Italy in 2028 was 10%, in 2029 8%, and in 2030 9% I will calculate, for Sicily (11 - 14)/16 = -0.1875 and for Italy (9-10)/8 = -0.125 and, since -0.1875 < -0.125 I will resolve YES. If bridge construction is not started (that market resolves NO) I will resolve N/A. If ISTAT data becomes unavailable I will attempt to substitute it with some other reliable source or, failing that, also resolve N/A. If significant territorial changes happen to Italy and/or Sicily that would make the data on unemployment meaningless, I will attempt to track down the unemployment figure corresponding to the territory of Italy and Sicily in 2023 or resolve N/A if I do not manage to.

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