If this market resolves NO https://manifold.markets/Ernie/bridge-built-connecting-mainland-it?r=TmFkaWFNYXRzaXVr I will call the year in which the market resolves t, the previous year t-1 and the next year t+1. I will compute (U(t+1) - U(t-1))/U(t) where U is the unemployment from ISTAT (http://dati.istat.it/Index.aspx?QueryId=20744&lang=en) for Sicily and for Italy as a whole. If the result is strictly smaller (with sign) for Sicily I will resolve YES as soon as the data becomes available for year t+1. Otherwise I will resolve NO. What I am trying to measure is the relative change in unemployment.
If bridge construction is started (that market resolves YES) I will resolve N/A.
If ISTAT data becomes unavailable I will attempt to substitute it with some other reliable source or, failing that, also resolve N/A.
If significant territorial changes happen to Italy and/or Sicily that would make the data on unemployment meaningless, I will attempt to track down the unemployment figure corresponding to the territory of Italy and Sicily in 2023 or resolve N/A if I do not manage to.