At least some work must have started and project must be funded and on track
Connecting each sides mainland, not islands
(Although stopovers or steps at islands are fine)
You'll be able to travel above water not flying between the countries
Related questions
@mariopasquato nope
"You'll be able to travel above water not flying between the countries"
it has to be above the water. Basically a pedestrian, train, car, etc bridge which physically connects the two sides and which a human could go across.
@mariopasquato definitely. it has to be relatively fixed. if it were a semipermanent boat which cars could drive over, but which also could sail away... that's a toughie.
@Ernie Hey, don't forget about giant (floating) pontoon bridges https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evergreen_Point_Floating_Bridge :P
@RobertCousineau yeah.
anyway I'm looking for something that is really a bridge. at least semi-permanent, resistant to all normal weather, planned to last at least 50 years etc. I think that's reasonable considering the other markets in this category "mega-bridges"
For a base rate, since the birth of the Republic Italy had N=31 prime ministers. Let’s call f the fraction of those who wanted to build a bridge. If p is the probability of success, the probability that they would all fail (assuming independent attempts, which is obviously wrong) would be (1-p)^(fN).