Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030
Basic
20
2.1k
2031
19%
chance

At least some work must have started and project must be funded and on track

Connecting each sides mainland, not islands

(Although stopovers or steps at islands are fine)

You'll be able to travel above water not flying between the countries

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bought Ṁ50 NO

and on track

easy NO

Not completely sure what "on track" means here. I read it as "The project is reasonably on track according to some official timeline that has 'Bridge Opening' at its end".

predicts NO

Would a tunnel count?

predicts NO

@mariopasquato nope

"You'll be able to travel above water not flying between the countries"

it has to be above the water. Basically a pedestrian, train, car, etc bridge which physically connects the two sides and which a human could go across.

predicts NO

@Ernie Ferries excluded :-)

predicts NO

@mariopasquato definitely. it has to be relatively fixed. if it were a semipermanent boat which cars could drive over, but which also could sail away... that's a toughie.

predicts NO

@Ernie Hey, don't forget about giant (floating) pontoon bridges https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evergreen_Point_Floating_Bridge :P

predicts NO

@RobertCousineau yeah.

anyway I'm looking for something that is really a bridge. at least semi-permanent, resistant to all normal weather, planned to last at least 50 years etc. I think that's reasonable considering the other markets in this category "mega-bridges"

predicts NO

For a base rate, since the birth of the Republic Italy had N=31 prime ministers. Let’s call f the fraction of those who wanted to build a bridge. If p is the probability of success, the probability that they would all fail (assuming independent attempts, which is obviously wrong) would be (1-p)^(fN).