Disruptions equals = federal charges, resigning, major official changes, arrest, removal of position in office.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if any of the following occur by March 31, 2026:

1. Federal charges filed against Tim Walz

2. Resignation from the office of Governor of Minnesota

3. Removal from office through impeachment, recall, or other official process

4. Arrest related to official conduct

Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Minnesota Governor's Office, federal court filings, or major news outlets reporting on these events. Articles of impeachment were filed against Walz on January 14, 2026, but impeachment alone does not constitute removal. The market resolves YES only if one of the four specified disruptions occurs.

Background

Walz withdrew his candidacy after investigations revealed extensive fraud in state-funded social services, raising criticism over failures in administrative oversight. In December 2025, the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI began investigating fraud by Minnesota daycare centers, which expanded to broader investigations into state programs.

Federal prosecutors are investigating Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey for allegedly impeding immigration agents. Federal prosecutors served six grand jury subpoenas to Minnesota officials as part of an investigation into whether they obstructed or impeded federal law enforcement during a sweeping immigration operation.

Considerations

There is nothing in the public record to indicate that any Minnesota official has violated the relevant law, and none of the public statements by the Minnesota officials currently under investigation are outside of the First Amendment. The obstruction investigation focuses on public statements and legal filings rather than direct coordination to prevent federal enforcement. At present, there is no known evidence that Walz directly participated in the scams themselves or accepted money related to the fraud investigations.

This description was generated by AI.