Resolution Criteria

The market resolves to whichever asset has the highest percentage gain during February 2026, measured from the closing price on February 1st at 12 am EST to February 28 at 11:59pm EST

Resolution sources:

Gold: MarketWatch Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) historical quotes at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00

Bitcoin: Binance BTC/USDT closing prices at
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

S&P 500: Yahoo Finance S&P 500 Index (^SPX) historical data at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^SPX/history/

Nasdaq-100: Yahoo Finance Nasdaq-100 Index (^NDX) historical data at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^NDX/history/

Percentage gain is calculated as: (Closing Price Feb 28 - Closing Price Jan 31) / Closing Price Jan 31 × 100

If two or more assets tie with identical percentage gains, the market resolves to the asset listed first alphabetically.

Background

Gold and silver have experienced significant volatility in early 2026, with precious metals unwinding much of their 2026 rally following a record single-day drop in silver. As of early February, gold was up 12.6% year-to-date while Bitcoin was up just 0.3%. Bitcoin tumbled from above $83,000 to as low as $74,570, hitting its lowest level since April. The 10-year Treasury yield remains above 4.3%, pressuring bond prices, while the S&P 500 rose 0.54% and Nasdaq Composite gained 0.56% to kick off February trading.

Considerations

Monthly returns can be highly volatile across these asset classes. Gold has surged on geopolitical uncertainty and tariff threats, while Bitcoin has traded like a risk asset rather than a safe haven, dropping alongside riskier tech stocks. Treasury bonds face headwinds from elevated yields, while equities remain sensitive to earnings surprises and Fed policy signals. The outcome will depend heavily on market conditions during the specific month.

This description was generated by AI.

• Update 2026-02-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Timezone: EST will be used for all price measurements.

Clarification on measurement period: The percentage gain will be calculated using closing prices from January 31st (not February 1st) to February 28th, both at the times specified in EST.