When will Polaris Dawn launch?
When will Polaris Dawn launch?
20
1kṀ9640resolved Sep 10
100%99.0%
Q3 2024
0.0%
Q1 2024
0.1%
Q2 2024
0.7%
Q4 2024
0.0%
Q1 2025
0.0%
Q2 2025
0.0%
Q3 2025
0.0%
Q4 2025
0.0%
2026 or later
0.1%
It will be cancelled.
Polaris Dawn is a planned private human spaceflight mission bought from SpaceX.
Since its announcement in February 2022, its planned launch date has repeatedly slipped to the right. When will this mission actually launch?
For this market, for it to be a "launch", the rocket must go above the launch tower under its own power with humans in the capsule on top of it.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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