2023 Polish election and referendum: referendum to have >=20 p.p. less voter turnout?
2023 Polish election and referendum: referendum to have >=20 p.p. less voter turnout?
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170Ṁ177resolved Oct 17
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Along with the parliamentary election, there will be a referendum hosted which will ask four questions:
[Polish referendum 1/4] Do you support the sale of state-owned enterprises?NO
[Polish referendum 2/4] Are you in favor of raising the retirement age [...]?NO
The opposition is encouraging people not to take part in the referendum, to decline the ballot for the referendum, vote only in the election.
Is the voter turnout for the referendum going to be at least 20 percentage points less than for the parliamentary election?
For example: resolves YES if the voter turnout for the referendum is 35,32% and 55,32% for the election, resolves NO in case for referendum 35,33% and 55,32% for election.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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