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Followup question, if anyone is interested:
/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-a-successful-coup-in-0a415e1d157b
@MrBonnison Could you step in and help clarify some of the questions from the comments?
In particular: Does the Coup attempt need to be successful?
For everyone else: If @MrBonnison does not return by 1 November, we can resolve this on their behalf. All the evidence I have seen points to this question requiring a successful coup attempt.
If a coup is in-progress at the end of October, I would not resolve until the result is known. It does not need to be declared successful before the 1st of November, if the attempt had already started before then.
@Eliza Looks like this can resolve; I don't see anything in progress and none succeeded between question creation and end of October.
I assume this means after question creation. Working from this list, it looks like there is one relevant coup or coup attempt: the Burkina Faso coup attempt. So I think this question comes down to whether the coup attempt has to be successful or not.
There is a high probability of coup d’etat in Africa soon however, it is not going to happen in October,2023! The plotters of coup d’etat over the years normally do so during election periods, constant agitations by the citizenry due to poor economic conditions, increasing corruption, and poor governance.
Guinea’s recent coup leader, Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, recently cited “poverty and corruption” as his reasons for overthrowing president Alpha Conde.
There is no doubt that these things are still on the increase in most of the Africa countries today. However, the striking medium which has always been an election is not happening anywhere in Africa countries which makes it difficult for the plotters to strike!
Therefore, I conclude by saying coup d'etat can not happen in October, 2023 but may happen in the near future.
I believe that the likelihood of a coup d'état occurring in Africa before the end of October is low. This conclusion is based on several factors. Firstly, while there was a coup d'état in Gabon last month, it is important to note that each African country has its unique political dynamics, and the occurrence of a coup in one nation does not necessarily indicate a trend across the entire continent.
Secondly, when assessing the potential for political instability, it is crucial to consider the presence of triggering events such as elections or other significant political milestones. In this case, there are no elections scheduled in many African countries for the month of October, which reduces the immediate catalyst for coup attempts.
Additionally, while political situations can change, it's essential to acknowledge that the likelihood of a coup d'état occurring within a specific timeframe is influenced by a combination of political, social, and economic factors. Given the current circumstances in Africa, it is reasonable to conclude that the probability of a coup before the end of October is relatively low.
While there are reasons and that indicates the military to overtake power in certain countries in Africa (coup d'etat), however my reason for the BET of a NO is simply due to certain factors and trends from previous coup's de'etat in neighboring african countries and the recent actions of ECOWAS'S (Economic communities of west-african states) which is they deployed peace keeping troops to several African states with economic and military tension brewing in them https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/04/niger-coup-ecowas-military-intervention-mali-burkina-faso-nigeria-wagner/ and also looking at the effects of the coup in countries where it occured, there have been economic tension and trade can't go on as usual - most African countries military wouldn't want to distabilize the peace of their nation https://theconversation.com/mali-top-5-implications-of-the-latest-palace-coup-161855
