Will the runner-up in the 2024 US Presidential Election accept their defeat by Dec 31, 2024?
56
97
580
2026
61%
chance

If there is an ongoing court case to determine the winner at any time in 2025, it's a no.

Other nos include armed conflict led by the non-conceding candidate, or the party of the non-conceding candidate largely supporting the notion that the election result has no legitimacy. (In 2020, Trump and his diehards rejected the outcome of the election, but the Republican Party accepted it, so applying my criteria to 2020 would've yielded a YES.

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ60 of YES

If Trump 2020 settles as "yes" this seems highly likely, I don't see him making a bigger fuss now than he did then (or the party going along with it after a second loss)

bought Ṁ1 of YES
Yeah, what counts as accepting defeat? If they claim in public that the election was stolen but there are no court cases or formal investigations, how does that resolve?
bought Ṁ10 of YES

@IsaacKing Probably NO?

I'd assume this question is about a formal concession/concession speech.

bought Ṁ10 of NO
Needs some clarification as to what "accept their defeat" entails...