Will Trump be pardoned OR have a significant legal victory in the New York case before the election?

Trump Trump indictment(s)Trial of the Century Legal Decisions

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Trump was convicted in New York on 34 counts.

https://deepnewz.com/politics/rep-dean-phillips-urges-gov-hochul-to-pardon-trump-after-felony-conviction-good

Market will resolve Yes if:
Trump is pardoned or the conviction is overturned, vacated, or otherwise dismissed
if Trump wins an appeal to overturn, stay, or postpone his conviction in New York State or the Supreme Court

The market will resolve NO if:
nothing happens
the conviction is not overturned or vacated

Market will resolve at election day 2024.

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I think this postponement is at least somewhat of a legal victory for Trump.

Since this is a delay, and not past the election, we will not yet consider it a significant victory.

However if the judge rules in his favor, or postpones sentencing past the election, that will probably count.

Trump sentencing is delayed until September 18th, as judge reviews the immunity decision.
https://deepnewz.com/new-york/trump-sentencing-hush-money-case-delayed-until-september-18

Trump to pre-meet for his probation hearing today -- virtually from Florida.
https://deepnewz.com/economics/trump-to-undergo-virtual-probation-interview-monday-after-hush-money-felony

Seems on the surface this is keeping up the appearances of proceeding normally...

Trump calling on Supreme Court to look at his conviction.
https://deepnewz.com/crime/trump-calls-on-supreme-court-to-intervene-before-july-11-sentencing-ahead

Them hearing the case and granting a stay would certainly count!

Would getting an appeal bond be counted as a legal victory?

@Pjfkh not sure what you mean

we are talking about the criminal case -- any explicit victory for Trump in court counts, but not related to money... this is not the civil case

@Moscow25 I meant that trump is going to appeal the NY case, and that could take a very long time (even years), if he is granted an appeal bond, then even if he is sentenced to prison time, he wouldn’t have to serve any while the appeal is underway. That could be interpreted as a significant legal victory (the appeal bond), even if it is highly likely.

Other legal victories could include a sentence of just probation or some other non-custodial sentence on July 11th. Etc.

So I was wondering if this would resolve on the granting of an appeal bond, or a symbolic sentence that doesn’t involve prison time.

@Pjfkh I understand. Yes if Trump is granted the appeal bond in the case you describe, before the election, that will count!

Thanks for the details.

However if he is sentenced to nothing, or probation, or they delay his sentencing... that counts as "nothing." He would have to appeal somewhere and win.

At the same time if the judge somehow vacates the conviction that is a win also....

Has to be a line draws somewhere.

I tend to agree it will be interesting to see what happens at sentencing.