Will there be any other serious assassination attempt before the election, against any of the President / VP candidates who are under Secret Service protection?

By serious attempt we mean

• any shot, explosive, etc that had a realistic chance of success

• any successful attempt that causes injury or worse

• any serious "foiled" conspiracy that is reported and confirmed by the FBI and Secret Service

The later of course is most tricky. The candidate claiming a conspiracy to assassinate him or her does not count. Only threats of course also do not count.

We will be very stringent with what counts as a foiled attempt.

But for example if the Trump shooter was shot or apprehended before taking a shot at the President, that would surely count. If he was arrested ten miles away from the rally, that may count but would be less clear as we would need to rely on the FBI to explain how severe the threat had been.

This market will resolve after the election.