The first started on Tuesday Jan 7th and devastated Malibu, Pacific Palisades, parts of Pasadena and several other communities.
https://deepnewz.com/natural-disasters
As of Wednesday afternoon, the fire are "0% contained" and there are four major fires burning across the Los Angeles area.
We will create questions here about the fires. When will they be contained? What cities will be evacuated? When will air quality return to "normal"?
Please suggest good questions in the comments.
If there is a similar Polymarket question -- we will follow their resolution criteria, whenever possible. If not we will use common sense and logic.
I will be betting these markets.
All times will be midnight Pacific. So "by Feb 1st" means this resolves as soon as it is Feb 1st (midnight) in California.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
All fires part of yesterdays cohort are considered when determining the outcome.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
Any airport with airline traffic is considered a major LA area airport, including:
Burbank
LAX
John Wayne
Ontario
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:
All current fires (four/five) are part of this market.
Any continuation of these fires is included in the market.
Fires that die down and start again after a pause are considered new fires and are not part of this market.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will follow Polymarket rules whenever appropriate.
Definition of "fire containment" as per Polymarket's definition.
Additional information can be found at California Fire Agency.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST): - Long Beach is considered a major airport and more major than Ontario. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Current Fire Count: There are five fires in Los Angeles and one in Riverside.
Containment Status: Only one fire is partially contained (40%); the others are 0% contained.
New Fire Consideration: The "Sunset" Fire in West Hollywood will be included in this market only if it is reclassified as part of the existing fires. If not reclassified, it will clear the "any new fires in Los Angeles" market.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): β’ Resolution for fire spread predictions: Determined by the official California fire website.
Follow Polymarket's resolution definition where appropriate.
Reference: Polymarket Event
Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - Charter schools are considered public schools (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - Excludes National Guard: Deployment count does not include National Guard troops. The deployment of the National Guard is addressed in a separate question, which has already been resolved as YES. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - Air Quality Resolution: The air quality market will be resolved as YES if weather apps show Los Angeles air quality as "good" or "moderate" and Palisades as "excellent", indicating that air quality is not a problem in most of the city. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-26-01 (PST): - Marines from Camp Pendleton are considered as deployed troops and qualify towards the deployment count. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-01-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:
Resolving YES for up to 1.5 inches of rain in Los Angeles over the past 2 days.
1,000@Moscow25 https://www.caloes.ca.gov/office-of-the-director/policy-administration/legal-affairs/emergency-proclamations/ the state of emergency is still listed here, so hasn't been lifted?
As of Jan 14, 7 LAUSD schools had been βtemporarily relocatedβ, eg the students were being sent to other schools within the district.
Can anyone verify whether these schools are back open Monday? I would argue if the students are still being sent to other schools within the district, this market should resolve NO.
Here are the relocations, which as best I can determine, are still in effect (source: Perplexity):
The following LAUSD schools were temporarily relocated due to fire damage and remain at their alternate sites as of February 1, 2025:
- Topanga Elementary β Woodland Hills Academy
- Canyon Charter Elementary β Brockton Elementary School
- Kenter Canyon Elementary β Emerson Middle School
- Lanai Road Elementary β Portola Middle School
- Roscomare Road Elementary β Warner Elementary School
- Community Charter Magnet β Westwood Elementary School
- Paul Revere Middle β University High School Charter
Additionally, Palisades Charter Elementary and Marquez Charter Elementary have been permanently relocated to Brentwood Science Magnet Elementary and Nora Sterry Elementary, respectively, due to extensive damage[1].
Sources
[1] Los Angeles Unified Update on Reopening Plans (01-14-25) https://www.lausd.org/site/default.aspx?PageType=3&DomainID=4&ModuleInstanceID=4466&ViewID=6446EE88-D30C-497E-9316-3F8874B3E108&RenderLoc=0&FlexDataID=184431&PageID=1
[2] Pupil Services & Attendance / Permits and Student Transfers - Inter ... https://www.lausd.org/Page/17471
[3] The air is bad, the staff is displaced. But schools are reopening as ... https://laist.com/news/education/school-closures-palisades-eaton-fire-los-angeles
[4] Pupil Services & Attendance / Permits and Student Transfers https://www.lausd.org/Page/17295
[5] As schools in LA reopen, parents worry about harmful ash from ... https://www.theintelligencer.net/news/top-headlines/2025/01/as-schools-in-la-reopen-parents-worry-about-harmful-ash-from-wildfires/
[6] How Charter Schools Are Steered Away From LAUSD's 'Most ... - LAist https://laist.com/news/education/lausd-charter-school-co-location-proposition-39-vote-february-2024
[7] Fire and Wind Related School Relocations. - Instagram https://www.instagram.com/laschools/p/DEid8J4TWIF/
[8] Contact Information and User Guides - LAUSD Apply https://apply.lausd.net/Contact
@BlueDragon I think all of these sources are likely outdated. They're all from when the relocation happened, around January 15th. The announcement made then that those 7 schools would be relocated indicated that they were only planned to do so for the rest of the week: (Meaning, at that time, they planned to reopen on the 20th)
https://www.lausd.org/site/default.aspx?PageType=3&DomainID=4&ModuleInstanceID=4466&ViewID=6446EE88-D30C-497E-9316-3F8874B3E108&RenderLoc=0&FlexDataID=184431&PageID=1
This Instagram post from the 25th seems to indicate to me that the preparations were complete and that the 7 schools would reopen (or that already had, and they were responding to concerns?), but it's ambiguous: https://www.instagram.com/p/DFRhJOCxLJC/?img_index=1
@MingCat I read this as they are preparing to reopen? For example:
On return to school, masks will be availableβ¦
So the question remains, did they actually reopen last week?
@BlueDragon Yeah, they hadn't been reopened as of the 25th. The sources Perplexity cited aren't signal though, they're from when the relocation was announced. All we can say is that they were planning to, seemed to be largely done with preparations as of the 25th, but that parents were objecting that it'd be unsafe. Is it more likely that there'd be no public updates if they decided to delay reopening, or if they did reopen? I'm not sure.
@MingCat hopefully there will be more definitive info next week.
This video, posted Friday, is all about the relocation, which suggests to me they are still preparing to reopen, but havenβt yet (also shows thereβs quite a bit of effort involved in doing so). But I agree thereβs room for doubt.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DFgDJJVsOad/?igsh=MTF4aHU1OHh1b2VuNA==
@BlueDragon Yep, a rep confirmed to me that the 7 schools are still relocated
@MingCat thanks for the research -- I agree it's hard to figure out but seems not all schools are re-opened...
Aw I know you canβt thank me enough for pointing this out and researching it after others had concluded otherwise, but you are welcome @Moscow25 ;).
As a clarification for why I included the Perplexity result even though the citations are garbage, itβs for the concise synthesis of TO WHERE the schools were temporarily being relocated, and to spur further inquiry. Indeed @MingCat stepped up immediately, and is a very good cat. Iβm sorry if either of you lost Mana, I held off betting it down.
As to why I spoke up, instead capitalizing completely, itβs because transparency creates better markets, and that is all I actually care about, not the accumulation of fake capital. I like this market @Moscow25, you did a great job setting it up and have done a great job all the way through. Kudos to you too.
https://www.lacoe.edu/about/newsroom/emergency-resources/wildfire-and-windstorm
The LA County Office of Education lists only Pasadena Unified School District schools as still being closed. However, the PUSD site itself says all schools have reopened as of January 31st.
Malibu was still closed as of yesterday, am trying to find more sources as the week goes on though. https://abc7.com/post/malibu-schools-closed-due-dangerous-road-conditions/15839958/
@Panfilo see above, I think the students are back at school, but at least 7 schools in LAUSD that were NOT destroyed by fire are sending their students to temporary locations.
Details may still be emerging though, might be more online next week.