The first started on Tuesday Jan 7th and devastated Malibu, Pacific Palisades, parts of Pasadena and several other communities.
https://deepnewz.com/natural-disasters
As of Wednesday afternoon, the fire are "0% contained" and there are four major fires burning across the Los Angeles area.
We will create questions here about the fires. When will they be contained? What cities will be evacuated? When will air quality return to "normal"?
Please suggest good questions in the comments.
If there is a similar Polymarket question -- we will follow their resolution criteria, whenever possible. If not we will use common sense and logic.
I will be betting these markets.
All times will be midnight Pacific. So "by Feb 1st" means this resolves as soon as it is Feb 1st (midnight) in California.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
All fires part of yesterdays cohort are considered when determining the outcome.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
Any airport with airline traffic is considered a major LA area airport, including:
Burbank
LAX
John Wayne
Ontario
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:
All current fires (four/five) are part of this market.
Any continuation of these fires is included in the market.
Fires that die down and start again after a pause are considered new fires and are not part of this market.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will follow Polymarket rules whenever appropriate.
Definition of "fire containment" as per Polymarket's definition.
Additional information can be found at California Fire Agency.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST): - Long Beach is considered a major airport and more major than Ontario. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Current Fire Count: There are five fires in Los Angeles and one in Riverside.
Containment Status: Only one fire is partially contained (40%); the others are 0% contained.
New Fire Consideration: The "Sunset" Fire in West Hollywood will be included in this market only if it is reclassified as part of the existing fires. If not reclassified, it will clear the "any new fires in Los Angeles" market.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): โข Resolution for fire spread predictions: Determined by the official California fire website.
Follow Polymarket's resolution definition where appropriate.
Reference: Polymarket Event
1,000
3.00@Moscow25 The Kenneth fire started today, has already caused several evacuations, and is already at ~800 acres:
https://app.watchduty.org/i/40508
@traders Will this break the FAIR plan?
https://manifold.markets/IsaacCarruthers/will-the-ca-fair-plan-get-a-bailout?play=true
"Will fire spread into town XYZ" will be resolved by the official California fire website.
See resolution definition from Polymarket.
https://polymarket.com/event/will-palisades-fire-spread-to-santa-monica-by-sunday
From the same excellent state fire website, you can see Palisades fire on the bottom left -- north and west of Santa Monica. Then the newer Sunset fire in Runyon Canyon, just north of West Hollywood.
In between you have Bel Air and UCLA campus, and Beverly Hills. Which are currently untouched.
https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2025/1/8/sunset-fire
Here is the current state of play from the excellent California Fire website.
https://www.fire.ca.gov/
There are five fires in Los Angeles -- plus one in Riverside.
Only one is partially contained (40%) -- the others are 0% contianed
The new fire is the "Sunset" Fire in West Hollywood. If this is a "major" fire that will clear the "any new fires in Los Angeles" market. I will wait to resolve that if it is not reclassified as part of one of the other fires.
Again, resolution will follow Polymarket rules whenever that is appropriate.
This is their definition of "fire containment"
https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-palisades-fire-be-contained-by-friday
All very reasonable stuff. But look here as well.
https://www.fire.ca.gov/
@Moscow25 oh just, if Long Beach is major I guess I don't know what airport wouldn't be major. But as you said, whichever ones don't have any airline traffic.
@DavidFWatson right -- there is a small airport in just about any city these days. But they don't have regularly scheduled flights. There are also private airports... some of those are big but don't qualify here -- and most people don't think about them. When you fly your own plane (or with a friend) you see how many airports there are.
Good question though. I think all the airports in Los Angeles that have commercial airline traffic are pretty big tbh. You can fly one or more major US carrier to all of them.
@Moscow25 Plausible this is already happening: https://www.stripes.com/branches/navy/2025-01-08/navy-helicopters-california-fires-16421460.html
@DavidFWatson This announces this will happen but has not happened yet as far as I know. It will probably happen....
