The first started on Tuesday Jan 7th and devastated Malibu, Pacific Palisades, parts of Pasadena and several other communities.

https://deepnewz.com/natural-disasters

As of Wednesday afternoon, the fire are "0% contained" and there are four major fires burning across the Los Angeles area.

We will create questions here about the fires. When will they be contained? What cities will be evacuated? When will air quality return to "normal"?

Please suggest good questions in the comments.

If there is a similar Polymarket question -- we will follow their resolution criteria, whenever possible. If not we will use common sense and logic.

https://deepnewz.com/natural-disasters/two-dead-80000-evacuated-palisades-eaton-fires-destroy-1000-structures-400bd1af

I will be betting these markets.

All times will be midnight Pacific. So "by Feb 1st" means this resolves as soon as it is Feb 1st (midnight) in California.

• Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:

  • All fires part of yesterdays cohort are considered when determining the outcome.

• Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:

  • Any airport with airline traffic is considered a major LA area airport, including:

  • Burbank

  • LAX

  • John Wayne

  • Ontario

• Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:

  • All current fires (four/five) are part of this market.

  • Any continuation of these fires is included in the market.

  • Fires that die down and start again after a pause are considered new fires and are not part of this market.

• Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will follow Polymarket rules whenever appropriate.

  • Definition of "fire containment" as per Polymarket's definition.

  • Additional information can be found at California Fire Agency.

• Update 2025-08-01 (PST): - Long Beach is considered a major airport and more major than Ontario. (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Current Fire Count: There are five fires in Los Angeles and one in Riverside.

  • Containment Status: Only one fire is partially contained (40%); the others are 0% contained.

  • New Fire Consideration: The "Sunset" Fire in West Hollywood will be included in this market only if it is reclassified as part of the existing fires. If not reclassified, it will clear the "any new fires in Los Angeles" market.

• Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): • Resolution for fire spread predictions: Determined by the official California fire website.

  • Follow Polymarket's resolution definition where appropriate.

  • Reference: Polymarket Event

• Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - Charter schools are considered public schools (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - Excludes National Guard: Deployment count does not include National Guard troops. The deployment of the National Guard is addressed in a separate question, which has already been resolved as YES. (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - Air Quality Resolution: The air quality market will be resolved as YES if weather apps show Los Angeles air quality as "good" or "moderate" and Palisades as "excellent", indicating that air quality is not a problem in most of the city. (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2025-26-01 (PST): - Marines from Camp Pendleton are considered as deployed troops and qualify towards the deployment count. (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2025-01-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:

  • Resolving YES for up to 1.5 inches of rain in Los Angeles over the past 2 days.