On June 28th, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in favor of Grants Pass, clearing the way for west coast cities to evict homeless encampments, without the need to provide for "adequate housing" or negotiate with homeless rights groups.
This ruling was widely derided by homeless rights advocacy groups, and cheered by "let's clean up San Francisco Twitter" among others.
https://x.com/garrytan/status/1806693120878563538
However, will anything happen? Specifically in 2024.
Here are the top 25 cities in California by population (minimum 180K -- but going off of this chart). Starting with Los Angeles, going down to Oxnard, Huntington Beach, Glendale and Ontario.
https://www.california-demographics.com/cities_by_population
Will any of these cities take a major action to evict homeless encampments in 2024?
The market will resolve YES if all of these happen
major news story about one of these 25 cities evicting significant homeless encampments (more than just a few people)
confirmation from the city that this is a major operation and or different from pre-Grants Pass years
mention of Grants Pass or SCOTUS decision
The market can resolve either on local legislation or the action itself (since the cities could cite previous rules that were simply not enforced because of homeless advocacy rights before Grants Pass).
In simpler terms, will there be a specific major action taken by one of these 25 cities, in 2024, related to evicting homeless encampments, affecting more than just a few people, that is reported in the news, and referencing this SCOTUS case.
If there is such clear action, the market will resolve NO.
Maybe even San Francisco…
https://x.com/yayareanews/status/1806801063410077947?s=46&t=KLdh_NjKu_D5KdnD3UmDRQ
Just to be clear -- the "encampment clearing" will have to be clear, obvious, and reported in the news.
And it has to happen in 2024. It can happen before or after the election.
As well as the action has to take place after the June 28th Grants Pass decision, of course. An action taken earlier in the year will not count...