My kid was conceived August 16. I ovulated on August 17. Due date calculated based on ovulation date is May 10, i.e. someone with a "normal" menstrual cycle would have had their last period begin August 3 if they ovulated on August 17.
I'm 31, I'll be 32 when the kid is born, and this is my first pregnancy.
April 12 = 36 weeks
...
May 3 = 39 weeks
May 10 = 40 weeks (due date)
Conception market for context: https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-my-friend-get-pregnant-market-LyZIyqnAug?r=TW9sbHlIaWNrbWFu
Will annull if I miscarry. At this time (9 weeks 5 days) my miscarriage odds are less than 2.5%
Update 2025-10-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market uses thresholds (not buckets). Each date option will resolve YES if the birth occurs before or on that date, and NO if it occurs after that date.
Update 2025-10-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution mechanism: Each date option will resolve YES if the birth occurs before or on that date, and NO if it occurs after that date. This market uses thresholds (not buckets).
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95% on >42 weeks seems too high given that's what it roughly should be before conditioning on it being at least 41 weeks, though maybe there is insider info I don't have access to that implies sooner than expected?
@Jasonb It's quite common in the developed world to induce labor before 42 weeks, as the risk of complications goes up a lot the longer the pregnancy goes on, especially if the mother is well-nourished. I don't know where OP lives but it seems quite likely to be somewhere with this norm. Since the mother was not having gestational diabetes or other complications a few weeks ago, and assuming she either has a very wide birth canal or the fetus is staying unusually small for its gestational age and presumptive nutrition, they might let it go longer, but 85% seems too low for that.
Also, the failure to resolve the 17th either way yet leads me to suspect that OP is either in labor or newly postpartum right now, though she could just be distracted or otherwise ignoring Manifold.
@SeekingEternity Thats fair, agreed 85% maybe seems too low, I think I'd put the prob at ~90% then
@SeekingEternity my midwife would have let me go past 42 weeks if I'd wanted but yeah the norm in hospitals in the US is I think to induce at 41 weeks, certainly by 42. Luckily for me, the question was moot. I went into labor on the 17th and delivered the guy on the 18th!
@MollyHickman Congratulations! Hope the birth wasn't too hard and that you're managing to sleep OK. Welcome to parenting, and welcome to the world, little one!
@100Anonymous yes, sorry, wasn't obvious to me how to do this... But @ian did it for me, thanks Buddy