This will resolve as ManticAI's rank (https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/191026/) on the finalized leaderboard of the Fall 2025 Metaculus Cup (now in progress). You have to click "advanced" to see both rankings on the leaderboard. If ManticAI does not compete or is disqualified, removed from the leaderboard, or otherwise ineligible at the time of final publication, I'll resolve as Ambiguous.

ManticAI recently emerged from stealth with an impressive performance on Metaculus: they won the top prize in the Q1 2025 Metaculus AI Benchmark Tournament (although they placed third if you count Metaculus bots -- metac-o1 and metac-o1-preview placed first and second, respectively). The Metaculus bot metac-o1 also entered the Q1 Quarterly (Metaculus) Cup as a normal participant and placed 25th out of 617 participants, reaching the top ~5%. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rDy5z8ZEtMrEGnfBd/q1-ai-benchmark-results-pro-forecasters-crush-bots

As of the time of writing, ManticAI ranks 9th in the Metaculus Cup Summer 2025: https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-summer-2025/

This question is also on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39792/manticai-metaculus-cup-fall-2025-rank/

Metaculus Cup Summer 2025

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