What’s going to happen to $TSLA in the next 4 months will shook many. Some will call me lucky, others will say it’s all scam.

The reality is that FMH breaks down in disruptive companies, and that many of you need to read the Innovators Dilemma

@MolbyDick I think Tesla's robotaxi launch in Austin will happen, but it's going to look pathetic compared to Waymo. It definitely won't be making much revenue in the next four months.

And in case you were thinking of Optimus, their first team lead says the plan doesn't make sense: https://www.businessinsider.com/teslas-first-optimus-lead-doubts-about-elon-musks-robot-dream-2025-5

@TimothyJohnson5c16

It absolutely won’t look pathetic, what matters is the graph of launching the first fully robotaxi rides to how quickly they scale in cities and fleet and miles driven relative to Waymo. That’s what matters. Tesla will outscale Waymo easily, if you understand the fundamentals it would be clear to you.

By mid next year Tesla will be doing more rides then Waymo and will have a much bigger operating fleet. Not to mention Waymo will never be able to compete with Tesla on margin and cost bc they are not a manufacturer lol.

And for the Optimus Robot, you have no idea how silly you sound. Humanoids are the only way to mass scale. there’s a reason he’s a “former lead”

It’s like when the ex lead of starlink said it was impossible to build the Satellites at the rate and efficiency Elon wanted in the time frame he called it “absurd and impossible”. Same stories were floating around a mere year or so before the first starlink launches. If you don’t go after the humanoid form you would have to scale hundreds of different form factors to completely automate the factory. Not to mention the fact that the entire world is built for humans.

@MolbyDick Waymo has been rolling out fairly slowly, but they have a significant market share in Austin now. And I think the fact that they survived while other companies were forced to exit (e.g., Cruise, Uber) is evidence that their strategy is working.

Elon is fine with blowing up a few SpaceX rockets on occasion, but he can't afford any mistakes like that with robotaxis, especially given how his reputation is in shambles after the last few months.

So either Tesla has to go slowly, or they're going to kill someone and be forced to slow down.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 no, you’re lacking a fundamental understanding of the difference between Waymo’s aproach and Tesla’s aproach, the problem each of them have.

Waymo has a lidar based, HD Mapping heuristics aproach, where for every city they want to launch they have to do extensive mapping and tweaking to get the model to work flawlessly in each location.

Tesla is a generalized vision only aproach, which will allow them to scale much quicker with a lot less time between getting a city ready to go live. Waymo starts mapping about a year before they launch sometimes even more. While Tesla only needs a couple months to make sure the model is working extremely well in that location and doing tiny tweaks if necessary.

And Tesla will start slow, hence only 10-20 cars on the first week, but will be able to scale much much quicker then Waymo could.

So currently Tesla has a software problem.

However, Waymo has a much more difficult problem, a hardware one. Waymo does not build its own cars. They will forever be limited on how quickly they can scale and what price they can offer.

By EOY 2026 Tesla will have more ~1 million robotaxis operating in the fleet give or take a couple hundred thousand

@MolbyDick I understand that Tesla's approach would be cheaper and scale faster if the software works. But I don't think it's going to work reliably enough.

You're welcome to bet on it here:
https://manifold.markets/TimothyJohnson5c16/will-tesla-have-a-fleet-of-at-least?play=true

@TimothyJohnson5c16 my re launch model Y has done 500 miles of no intervention straight in 3 weeks of driving around Miami past traffic, and road construction.

Relative to how things were 6 months ago, then 12 months, etc. it’s pretty fricking incredible and reliable. What matters the most tho is the rate of improvement. And this is the supervised builds of FSD, Tesla has had unsupervised builds for a couple of months now and they keep iterating, and now they are already doing driverless for employees in Austin, driverless from factory to parking lot (through roads with other drivers) in Berlin, Austin, and Fremont. (And those don’t have someone supervising it every step of the way)

Tesla also has the most data for training the Waymo by a vast margin, its a foregone conclusion that Tesla will be the most reliable option

I like how it’s decreasing as the stock price increases lol

@MolbyDick it would need to increase a lot more very quickly to justify 9% odds on this market imo

@MolbyDick The implied probability based on the TSLA option chain was still like <4% last time I checked

@spiderduckpig yep :) my favorite times keep an eye on it for the next 6 months :)

@MolbyDick Are you holding some calls?

@spiderduckpig 🎯🎯

@MolbyDick

Some might say I’m just built different, and I’d agree

@MolbyDick

The best is yet to come!

I wonder what's up with this. I mean, yes obviously, @MolbyDick (aka TSLABull) is bullish on TSLA, but it'd be way more cost effective to use limit orders.

My pet theory is that the motivation here isn't to win mana. Crazy thought, I know, but maybe he just wants to see the % be higher, no matter how fleeting? It's not enough to punch the air, you've got to feel an impact.

On a separate thought, if Manifold's loan system actually cared about bad loans, there would be all sorts of red flags here. It's using his mana in this market (and highly correlated markets) as collateral, but that collateral is clearly going to go to zero. Likely, he'll abandon this account with a large negative balance, and manifold will take a "loss". That's not something that concerns me, it's just a little meta prediction :)

@DanHomerick He's lost a lot more before though.

@DanHomerick you’re almost on the right track.

I’ve lost 6M mana (when I had bought a bunch)

New goal is to get back to over 6M but without paying for it, just getting crazy markets like this, right ;)

@MolbyDick and yes I’ve been told to use limit orders since I made an account here.

I am just not going to and that’s that

New goal is to get back to over 6M but without paying for it, just getting crazy markets like this, right ;)

lol, well good luck with that! 🤣

@DanHomerick easy for me in 2 years goal is for 1 year tho let’s see

@DanHomerick

On a separate thought, if Manifold's loan system actually cared about bad loans, there would be all sorts of red flags here. It's using his mana in this market (and highly correlated markets) as collateral, but that collateral is clearly going to go to zero. Likely, he'll abandon this account with a large negative balance, and manifold will take a "loss". That's not something that concerns me, it's just a little meta prediction :)

In general, this is clearly true—Manifold's protections on giving leverage to risky portfolios is minimal. The only real checks are (1) loans given on min of current value and spend, (2) per-market loans capped at 5% of your total net worth, & (3) an extremely high overall leverage cap that few users reach. As risk reductions go, those are extremely light, Manifold effectively offers almost anyone free leverage (& when (2) was added, people did and still complain that it was too restrictive, although I think it's already far too lenient).

That being said, I don't think @MolbyDick has actually taken any daily loans on his position in this market. So there's no need to worry about the loan system in this particular case. He's basically just spending mana that he purchased himself.

@Ziddletwix never taken a loan

Tomorrow, will be a great buying opportunity.

This is the quarter Tesla proves to the world that scalable robotaxis with a cost efficient sensor suite will be possible.

@MolbyDick

@MolbyDick let’s just say the buying opportunities will continue to get better and better as time passes