i may be late, and sometimes miss the exact timing, but im rarely wrong.

hence leaps are always the majority of my position, lets just say I am a very happy TSLABull

enjoy the EOY run :)

@MolbyDick let it begin

@MolbyDick Want to make another version of this market that goes through the end of the year?

Make a new one

@Joshua i recommend not betting against tsla

10k no up at 2% if anyone wants it

@MolbyDick Any thoughts on Tesla delaying their annual meeting?

https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/10/business/tesla-annual-meeting-delay

@TimothyJohnson5c16 This is because of Elon’s comp package, committee was setup in April, and the board needs to take as much time as needed to ensure there is no possibility of a second Delaware nightmare, we should hear about the Comp Plan soon, to allow enough time for voting / disputes etc

if I were Elon, I wouldn’t want the stock to run as much before I got my comp package, tho I expect Wall Street to front run

let’s see eh? we definitely in for an interesting few weeks and months

:@MolbyDick :)

the same surprise exponential from ramping cars that we saw in 2019-2021 will be the same level of surprise (but even more impactful) with Robotaxi Ramp

Watch the curve!

I will look back in disbelief that I was able to purchase $TSLA below $300 weeks after the first robotaxi rides took place

ur welcome future me :)

@MolbyDick 😎

Clear for launch!

@MolbyDick 🤭

@MolbyDick if you're talking about a long view (say, 3-10 years), I agree that TSLA may be a reasonably good price to buy right now. I'm not buying any, but it's a maybe.

But this manifold market isn't about a long view. It's about where the stock price will be in just a little over three months.

I'm curious if you're still optimistic about the share-price more than doubling by 10/10/2025.

I'm quite skeptical that the market will reward a fast ramp-up, even if it happens. The profitability of the fleet will need to be proven, not just growth. It's not software, where scale drastically improves profit margins, the are significant per vehicle and per ride costs.

@DanHomerick I am still confident this market will be resolved yes

@MolbyDick interesting.

I do hope that's not because you're planning to ignore reality when you resolve. Manifold has had enough of that nonsense lately.

@DanHomerick fwiw, while manifold would overrule a false resolution in this case regardless, in the original market, with vastly higher stakes (many millions of mana), @MolbyDick had a plausible opportunity to resolve it in his favor on an edge case (a bizarre/not-meaningful/momentary spike in the after hours price IIRC) and he chose not to. So I would not be worried!

@DanHomerick once you understand what it takes for Wall Street to start modeling a new disruption like this, you’ll see what I’m talking about

robotaxi doesn’t have to provide a single dollar of profit this year for Wall Street to start modeling it, they just need to prove they can scale, they will be able to make an extremely nice profit, more so then a company like Waymo which is taken seriously

@Ziddletwix 🎯 the real stakes I care about is the options market ;)

@Ziddletwix 🎯 the real stakes that matter to me is the options market ;)

@Ziddletwix here's a derivative market:

"Will TSLABull fairly resolve this market?"

https://manifold.markets/DanHomerick/will-tslabull-fairly-resolve-this-m?r=RGFuSG9tZXJpY2s

@DanHomerick I’m only interested in derivatives that will help me increase my share count in $TSLA

@MolbyDick agreed that TSLA doesn't have to make a profit from the taxi service yet, but I don't see how they can provide convincing profitability guidance until they have several quarters of significant ride-volume.

There are costs for cleaning, maintenance, depreciation, charging infrastructure, electricity, customer support, liability insurance, lawyers etc. Tesla needs to show they can ramp up this line of business with attractive and improving profit margins to really get investors excited.

I expect they can do that, but am skeptical that it will happen on a timeline relevant to this market.

@DanHomerick the biggest cost is the actual car, everything else is marginal (not to say you dont need to have a really tight ship, and do things efficiently, hence Tesla has developed an autonomous clean robot for the vehicles)

charging doesn’t matter because they are already and have been investing in infrastructure and that’s a profitable business within Tesla

No one is ready for what’s coming.

I tried to warn yall

@MolbyDick thanks for the mana