Will Tesla announce an FSD Licensing deal during Earnings/company update on 4/22/2025?

100Ṁ2038

resolved Apr 22

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Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, during Tesla's earnings call or company update on April 22, 2025, the company officially announces a licensing agreement for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology with another entity. The announcement must be made publicly during the event. If no such announcement is made, the market will resolve to "No."

Background:

Tesla has previously expressed openness to licensing its FSD technology to other automakers. In July 2023, CEO Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla was in early discussions with a major original equipment manufacturer (OEM) about such a licensing deal. However, as of January 2024, no agreements had been finalized, with Musk noting that other automakers "don't believe it's real quite yet." (electrek.co, theverge.com)

Given this context, traders should consider the likelihood of Tesla finalizing and announcing an FSD licensing agreement during the upcoming earnings call.

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1mo

Try again next quarter 😂

bought Ṁ100 YES1mo

anyone wanna play before earnings?

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

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