By what day will Nikki Haley first pass Ron Desantis in the 538 primary polling average?

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resolved Jan 2

100%98.3%

February 1, 2024

0.0%

November 1, 2023

0.0%

November 15, 2023

0.0%

December 1, 2023

0.3%

December 15, 2023

0.7%

January 1, 2024

0.1%

March 1, 2024

0.1%

April 1, 2024

0.0%

May 1, 2024

0.0%

June 1, 2024

0.0%

June 15, 2024

0.4%

Never

All ones January 1 and after are 2024. According to 538 here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

National : President: Republican primary : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

if she were to pass Ron desantis on November 16, that would count as the December 1 choice.

US Politics

Trump

Republican Party

2024 US Presidential Election

Nikki Haley

2024 Republican Primaries

Ron DeSantis

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@Molari should resolve 1st Feb as of today

Still a 0.7% gap on Dec 31. I’m not sure if any new polls would be added on a national holiday, and even if there were, it’s unlikely that the gap would be closed that quickly.

UPDATED DEC. 16, 2023, AT 3:10 PM

+1.4% DeSantis Over Haley

Not looking good for January 1st 2024.

UPDATED DEC. 15, 2023, AT 7:01 PM

+1% DeSantis Over Haley

UPDATED DEC. 14, 2023, AT 3:48 PM

What if DeSantis drops out?

@Weezing Counts Haley leading at his dropout date

Is this supposed to be 2024?

@NPFG Yeah all 2024 after January 1

@Molari You can edit options now

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