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Resolving NO per Polymarket, @100Anonymous i ll managram my profit of 332 from this market to you to soften the blow you took from Polymarket disputes.

Airspace restrictions and infrastructure blackouts are tightly coupled in the IRGC's defensive playbook. See how it aligns with the broader timeline race here:

https://indianexpress.com/article/world/us-news/iran-closes-airspace-trump-cancels-plans-us-military-strikes-rubio-india-10704692/
I don't understand why everyone on Polymarket is ignoring flight paths. Polymarket is blocked in my country, but I'm surprised this hasn't been mentioned by anyone

@100Anonymous Polymarket resolution criterion is:

Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).

So I guess you’re right? People are indeed complaining in Polymarket comments. There are two camps. The fake news camp, and the people that believe in those news articles and flight paths.

Maybe the decision will be changed there. Keep an eye on Polymarket with a vpn I guess.

@JasonMendoza2008 the government has surveillance even on VPNs, and you can go to jail for bypassing it

@100Anonymous oh wow ok don’t do that then aha

@JasonMendoza2008 so apparently it's only a fine for bypassing it, but you can go to jail for betting, but still, why would I want to get a fine for no reason
Does not mean that I wanted to do that, but I am just saying this for correctness purposes.

I'm going to remove this market from the mod queue, it seems like this market is using polymarket as a resolution source. That is totally fine.

The news post is interesting, intentional misinfo so they could profit on poly? bad mistake? Very annoying, but that is who scammed you, not Mochi

There’s reports saying the airspace closing was fake news and not official from Iran, if the Polymarket resolves NO for May 24th. Then I will resolve May 22nd as NO as well.

iranintl.com/en/202605238800

@Mochi @mods may 31 can resolve. see evidence below

@100Anonymous how can I resolve when the question says resolves to the Polymarket and Polymarket has not resolved YES? I don’t like this either as I was the one buying up May 22nd.

@Mochi apparently polymarket doesn't care about established news and flight paths

@Mochi So just to be clear, if polymarket resolves this dishonestly, will you also resolve it dishonestly?

@100Anonymous I m resolving this to my description of the resolution because that’s how other traders are trading this question based on.

@Mochi so you would resolve dishonestly?

@100Anonymous I'd say that is an honest resolution because we're trading polymarket's resolution.

@JasonMendoza2008 its a spirit vs letter thing

@100Anonymous it’s really not. The spirit has always been to resolve to Polymarket.

@Mochi no. polymarket ignoring literal flight paths and legitimate news reporting is something we can change on Manifold

@100Anonymous the thing is we’re not trading the news here; we’re trading Polymarket resolution

@JasonMendoza2008 i feel scammed

@100Anonymous I feel you

@100Anonymous it probably was fake news though

@100Anonymous as genzy said, Polymarket is the one that scammed. Believe me I did not like this either as I went from +2k on this market to now breakeven. I am just trying to run this market correctly.

@Mochi -2k for a 430k user is different from -7k for a 36k net worth

@100Anonymous I bought lots of NO May 31st shares to hedge my May 22nd positions which may bring me a profit after the May 22nd losses. Whatever profit I end up having I ll managram to you. Not enough to recoup your losses but hopefully softens the blow. Let’s learn and not overextend a big percentage of networth into an uncertain bet in the future.