Will OpenAI give us a Christmas present i.e. new model?
Will OpenAI give us a Christmas present i.e. new model?
48
890Ṁ16kresolved Dec 27
Resolved
NO1H
6H
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PST Timezone. Since OpenAI employees need vacation time, I'll accept presents on December 26 too.
ONLY Christmas presents count - so a new model in the GPT-4 series must drop on exactly either Christmas(2023-12-25) or the day after(2023-12-26). Earlier or later days will NOT count.
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predictedNO 1y
Why did the probability of this change, given that if it was going to happen on those days, it would not happen until those days.
predictedNO 1y
@DavidBolin Honest answer I think is that other leaks and rumours about OpenAI haven't been paying dividends recently, so that tarnishes all of them.
predictedNO 1y
@DavidBolin As someone who was buying this down hard, I could see myself buying this down to 2% even before, but when the time frame gets shorter the opportunity cost gets better.
predictedYES 1y
Unlikely looking, but my mana needs this, so if you have an in at OAI, please tell them I asked very nicely.
bought Ṁ30 YES from 19% to 22% 1y
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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