Resolves PROB based on (1 - p) where p = percentage between market creation and market close that the model is released. Resolves NO if the model is not released this year.

Examples:

• If the new model is released April 5, it would resolve 100%.

• If the new model is released August 18, it would resolve 50%.

• If the new model is released December 31, it would resolve 1%.

Background:

News: Anlatan acquires HGX H100 Cluster | by NovelAI | Mar, 2023 | Medium

With all the recent language models being hyped, the quality of NovelAI seems, compared to competitors, much worse than last year. So now they're rushing to make a competitive model again.

They release pretty frequently, the post says they have the data, they just got the compute, but... is ~8 months enough to release something competitive with Bing and GPT-4?

"AI Model" is currently the list '(Euterpe Krake Sigurd Genji Snek Calliope). A new AI model would be an addition to this list within the UI being given a distinct name. Updates to existing models, new configuration options, new "AI Modules", new site features, do not count for resolution. Only a model, defined as a thing that is placed in the same list as those.

Market bechanism:

As market creator, I'm expecting the model to be released this year but don't want to manage several different markets on the same thing. So I'm collapsing them all to a single "When will it be released?" market using this PROB mechanism.