Will the Doomsday Clock advance forward because of AI?

1.6kṀ2677

resolved Jan 23

ALL

50%16%

Clock moves forward | AI is cause

50%36%

Clock moves backward

48%

Clock moves forward | AI is not cause

https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/

"Clock moves forward/backward" should be unambiguous. In the unlikely event it's exactly the same, resolves 50% "Clock moves backward" and 50% across both "Clock moves forward" options proportional to the resolving weight of "AI is cause".

"AI is cause" resolves:

25% if "AI" or "Artificial intelligence" get even a slight mention.
50% if mass job loss, dependency on AI and loss of human control over economic infrastructure, or autonomous AI war drones are mentioned. Remotely-operated war drones don't count.
75% if the possibility of a monopoly AI company/government dictatorship is mentioned(weak "S-risk").
YES if AI extinction risk is mentioned("X-risk"), or of an AI tormenting humanity as a terminal goal("S-risk").
If multiple causes are mentioned, resolves to the maximum severity rating.
If they mention something else, I'll try to match it to these categories. You can ask in the comments ahead of time.

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They didn't change it, so "Clock moves forward/backward" resolves 50%.

"AI is cause" resolves YES. The press release cites generative AI, which is sufficient for 25%:

But if you check The Bulletin, there is explicit mention of generative AI leading to existential risk:

Most of their focus is on "disinformation", but existential risk gets mentioned so it resolves YES.

In the unlikely event it's exactly the same

Why unlikely? The market price here seems very inconsistent with other doomsday clock markets, which makes me worry that I've misread the criteria or that other people have misread the criteria.

@StevenK "Unlikely" for a market creator means "I don't expect to recover 25 mana by adding the option since it'll get bid to near 0% instantly and will get fewer than 9 traders". It's possible I mispredicted demand for the option.

@Mira This is probably a stupid question but why is the threshold >= 9 traders? I thought you received 5 mana per trader for each option, so you would only need 5 traders?

@12c498e No, you're right. I thought they reduced the bonus in half for multibinary compared to binary, but I checked and they still give M5. So no reason not to include it, though I can't change it now.