Will the Doomsday Clock advance forward because of AI?
58
1.6kṀ2677
resolved Jan 23
50%16%
Clock moves forward | AI is cause
50%36%
Clock moves backward
48%
Clock moves forward | AI is not cause

https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/

"Clock moves forward/backward" should be unambiguous. In the unlikely event it's exactly the same, resolves 50% "Clock moves backward" and 50% across both "Clock moves forward" options proportional to the resolving weight of "AI is cause".

"AI is cause" resolves:

  • 25% if "AI" or "Artificial intelligence" get even a slight mention.

  • 50% if mass job loss, dependency on AI and loss of human control over economic infrastructure, or autonomous AI war drones are mentioned. Remotely-operated war drones don't count.

  • 75% if the possibility of a monopoly AI company/government dictatorship is mentioned(weak "S-risk").

  • YES if AI extinction risk is mentioned("X-risk"), or of an AI tormenting humanity as a terminal goal("S-risk").

  • If multiple causes are mentioned, resolves to the maximum severity rating.

  • If they mention something else, I'll try to match it to these categories. You can ask in the comments ahead of time.

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