Resolves to the market's trading volume as the linear interpolation of nearest surrounding entries. New entries will be added as necessary by doubling the largest. No other answers will be added(or if accidentally added, will be invalid and ignored).
The Projected Close Time is initially 2024-05-31 11:59:59 PST. A Breakpoint is each numerical answer on the table. Whenever the trading volume exceeds a breakpoint, the Projected Close Time should be extended by 7 days. Whenever the market closes, the projected close time is extended by one day for each new breakpoint exceeded since the last time the market closed(Bonus Extension), and the close time should be extended to the projected close time. Market creator is allowed to extend the close time to the projected close time at any time. If the market closes and should not be extended, it resolves to the trading volume.
Trading volume is the "Total volume" number that shows in the UI on the website. If the number is not visible on the UI, an API estimate may be used as backup. If the trading volume changes after closing, the first such number noted by the market resolver in a comment is used.
Example:
No trading activity on the market. It resolves 100% 0.
Just before closing, a whale puts M100k on NO 0, creating M100k of trading volume. This exceeds 14 breakpoints. The projected close time is extended by 98 days as soon as the order is filled. When the market closes, it is further extended by 14 days to 112 days net. Market creator or a moderator should reopen the market when they next notice to September 20, 2024. No further activity happens, so the market resolves to (65536*2 - 100000) / 65536 = 47% M65,536 and 53% M131,072.
Market state:
Last breakpoint achieved: 2^20=M1048576 (7 days*17 breakpoints)
Last breakpoint credited to the bonus pool: M1024 (8 days)
Projected Close Time: +127 days = 2024-10-05
1,000
3.00@mods deleted account
100% for 2097152 as it is more than 99.5% of way there from 1048576 and 0% for all other options
@ChristopherRandles If I use the formula from the example I arrive at 3% for the 1,048,576 option.
(1048576 * 2 - 2062601) / 1048576 = 0,0329
@Mira Can deadline be extended?
Also current trading volume is 1046065 which is more than 99.5% of way from 524288 to 1048576. Does linear interpolation work to nearest % because part percent cannot resolve?
So 524288 bin already guaranteed to resolve at 0% even if a strict interpolation would give it a fraction (<half) of a percent?
@ChristopherRandles I've extended to October 5 because of 3 new breakpoints.
I will round the linear interpolation when resolving to the nearest percentage point. So 0.5% will round to 1% and 0.49% will round to 0%.
OK reached 1016117 so about ~32.5k to 1048576
@nikki has 11333 @nettika 5769 and @Sketchy 4206
This time I will remember to leave my buy order of 141 on yes at 1% on the 524288 bin. So if 2 or 3 of above sell out that should increase the trade volume by at least 28k. If it doesn't pass 1048576 then I will push it past before 15th and delete any remaining of my yes order. Just want to allow those 3 to sell out and gain something for their yes holdings. ;) (yes OK it also suits me.)
So think these three and others holding yes on the 524288 bin should grab the 1% while it lasts.
@ChristopherRandles have you mathed out the fee/cost rate of all that wash trading with 50k limit orders?
@JamesBaker3 Certainly not as rigorously as I should have done, but well enough to be fairly sure of a profit.
Now Passed 131072, 262144 and 524288 so a 3 week extension is due now and 9 more days eventually.
262144 and lower now valueless, so I suggest sell out of yes positions while you can still get 1%, note that 65k and lower have all gone to 0%.
Going over 1m seems inevitable.... which further extends the time. So 1% return over at least 38 days may not be attractive.