On March 13, 2024, I will run a script to calculate the average probability of open Manifold markets. Only binary markets will be counted.
Resolves to a linear interpolation between nearest percentages. I can resolve Other or partially Other as needed.
Examples:
53.59% will resolve to 59% 54 and 41% 53.
55.4% will resolve to 60% 55 and 40% 56
Any answers that are not integers between [0,100] resolve NO.
This is a rescaling of the original market: /Mira/what-is-the-average-probability-of
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ258 | |
| 2 | Ṁ193 | |
| 3 | Ṁ67 | |
| 4 | Ṁ13 | |
| 5 | Ṁ6 |
People are also trading
Why do you think the average is below 50%?
I can speculate. My guess is that there a lot of markets for asking about 10% or 20% events which would be notable if they happen, fewer about 80% or 90% events that people generally expect. Probably also there is "will X happen by deadline" where it resolves if it happens and the market isn't open long, but if not it slowly decays to 0.
I am curious if you can run some more scripts to see where the bias away from 50% is coming from.
@nathanwei see my two comments on the original market linked in the description, happy to do some more exploration if you have specific hypotheses.
The current average is 40.77%.
