Will Cruise's driverless robotaxi service/technology be sold or abandoned by the end of 2024
25
1kṀ4743
resolved Dec 10
Resolved
YES
"Cruise co-founder and CEO Kyle Vogt resigns" https://techcrunch.com/2023/11/19/cruise-co-founder-and-ceo-kyle-vogt-resigns/
Cruise announced relaunch of manned testing in Phoenix, AZ, yesterday https://twitter.com/Cruise/status/1777730749698826490 https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/where-will-gm-cruise-relaunch-in-li
-17.0%
on
https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=24088334
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on

Trying to give pretty precise resolution criteria-- will do my best to refine and resolve in the spirit of the question, and won't be betting.

Resolves YES if anything like these happen:

  • GM sells its controlling stake in Cruise to a competitor (e.g. no longer has >50% of voting shares; IPO does not count).

  • Cruise's driverless (Level 4 or 5) aspirations are abandoned in the immediate future. (For example, instead Cruise could aim for more conservative long-term self-driving goals: Level 3 [manned self-driving] or Level 2 [ADAS like Tesla "FSD"]). This would require Cruise or GM announcing such.

  • All public robotaxi ride-hail operations are shut down. ("Public" meaning non-Cruise/GM employees, regardless of fares or waitlists).

Resolves NO if nothing like this happens by the end of 2024.

Some examples of things that wouldn't result in an immediate YES resolution:

  • Paid ride-hail operations shut down, but unpaid rides to some members of the public continue.

  • Cruise decides to pivot to persuing self-driving trucking for some reason (but meanwhile public ride-hail operations continue).

2023-11-06: Clarifiy that controlling state considers voting shares in the case of voting share shenanigans

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