Trying to give pretty precise resolution criteria-- will do my best to refine and resolve in the spirit of the question, and won't be betting.

Resolves YES if anything like these happen:

• GM sells its controlling stake in Cruise to a competitor (e.g. no longer has >50% of voting shares; IPO does not count).

• Cruise's driverless (Level 4 or 5) aspirations are abandoned in the immediate future. (For example, instead Cruise could aim for more conservative long-term self-driving goals: Level 3 [manned self-driving] or Level 2 [ADAS like Tesla "FSD"]). This would require Cruise or GM announcing such.

• All public robotaxi ride-hail operations are shut down. ("Public" meaning non-Cruise/GM employees, regardless of fares or waitlists).

Resolves NO if nothing like this happens by the end of 2024.

Some examples of things that wouldn't result in an immediate YES resolution:

• Paid ride-hail operations shut down, but unpaid rides to some members of the public continue.

• Cruise decides to pivot to persuing self-driving trucking for some reason (but meanwhile public ride-hail operations continue).
  

2023-11-06: Clarifiy that controlling state considers voting shares in the case of voting share shenanigans