• PAS is pro-European, currently ruling, and leading in many polls, but is generally not expected to win an outright majority under current projections.

• The Patriotic Bloc, a bloc of pro-Russian / socialist/communist parties, is expected to gain significant share, possibly entering Parliament.

• The Alternative Bloc is also polling in strong enough territory to likely pass the threshold.

• Our Party (Partidul Nostru) shows up in polls as well, with a chance to pass the threshold in some polls.

Resolution criteria

• Resolve to the option whose party or registered electoral bloc receives the highest nationwide vote share in the 28 September 2025 parliamentary election, per the Central Electoral Commission’s (CEC) official results (includes all domestic and diaspora ballots). Primary source: CEC results page for the 28 Sep 2025 parliamentary election. If that page is down, use the CEC portal mirroring results. (diaspora.cec.md)

• If two or more options tie for the top vote share in the final CEC tally, all tied options resolve YES.

• “Other” resolves YES only if a party/bloc not listed wins the largest vote share.

• If CEC adjusts totals before Constitutional Court confirmation, resolve using the CEC’s final published nationwide totals; if a court-ordered recount later changes the winner within 14 days, adjust the market accordingly. (zdg.md)

Background

• PAS (Party of Action and Solidarity): Ruling, pro‑EU party; consistently leads most 2025 polls but often below a majority. Examples: iData (May–June) ~27–40% (series); IMAS (June) ~31.5%. (ipn.md)

• Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP): Registered on Aug 3, 2025; left/pro‑Russian alliance centered on PSRM, with PCRM, PRIM (Irina Vlah) and PVM (Vasile Tarlev). Some polls show a consolidated left bloc competitive with PAS. (ipn.md)

• Alternative Bloc (BA): Founded Jan 31, 2025 by Chișinău mayor Ion Ceban with allies (Stoianoglo, Chicu, Tkachuk); registered competitor; polls generally mid‑single to low‑double digits. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Our Party (Partidul Nostru, PN): Led by Renato Usatîi; officially registered Aug 26, 2025; polling around threshold to high single digits across 2025 surveys. (ipn.md)

• Context: Election date set for Sep 28, 2025; 101 seats elected via nationwide PR. Thresholds: 5% (parties), 7% (blocs), 2% (independents). (aa.com.tr)

Considerations

• Diaspora impact: 301 polling stations abroad; diaspora votes are included in nationwide totals and historically boost PAS. Traders should factor turnout abroad. (ifes.org)

• Oppositional fragmentation/realignment: The pro‑Russian “Victory” bloc was refused registration on July 19, 2025 (decision later upheld), potentially shifting its voters to other lists (notably BEP). (digi24.ro)

• Information environment: Authorities report significant Russian‑linked disinformation and attempted destabilization ahead of the vote, which could affect late swings and turnout. (reuters.com)