Ilie Bolojan became Prime Minister of Romania on 23 June 2025, with Nicușor Dan as President. The coalition agreement foresees a rotation in April 2027, when PSD is expected to nominate a new PM. However, the government could collapse earlier due to coalition disputes, economic pressures, or external shocks.

Resolution: This market resolves to the number of full months the Bolojan government lasts, counted from 23 June 2025 until either (a) it is replaced/resigns, or (b) April 2027 rotation occurs, or (c) the next government is officially sworn in.

Resolution criteria

• Start date: 23 June 2025, when Ilie Bolojan’s cabinet received Parliament’s confidence vote and was sworn in. Verified via contemporaneous reporting. (apnews.com)

• End date: the earliest calendar date on which one of the following occurs (Romania local time):

  1. The President accepts Bolojan’s resignation by decree (as announced by the Presidency and/or published in Monitorul Oficial). (monitoruloficial.ro)

  2. A rotation in April 2027 occurs and a PSD-nominated successor is sworn in. (apnews.com)

  3. A different Prime Minister and cabinet take the oath at Cotroceni (new government sworn in). (apnews.com)

• What resolves: the number of full months the “Bolojan government” lasts, counted from 23 June 2025.

  • Counting rule: add 1 month each time the 23rd of a subsequent month begins (00:00 EET/EEST) while Bolojan is still Prime Minister; stop on the first end-date above. Example: ends on 22 June 2026 → 12 months; ends on 23 June 2026 → 13 months.

Background

• Bolojan was nominated PM by President Nicușor Dan on 20 June 2025 and the coalition won the confidence vote on 23 June 2025; the cabinet was sworn in the same day. (reuters.com)

• Dan was inaugurated President on 26 May 2025, following the 18 May runoff. (apnews.com)

• The governing agreement includes a planned PM rotation to PSD in 2027. The coalition formed to address a large fiscal deficit and may pursue unpopular consolidation measures. (apnews.com)

Considerations

• Resignation vs. caretaker: if Bolojan resigns and serves in an interim capacity, the end date is the Presidential decree date acknowledging the resignation (not the later swearing-in of the successor). (monitoruloficial.ro)

• Minor cabinet reshuffles do not reset the clock; only a change of Prime Minister (or the April 2027 rotation with swearing-in) ends the government for this market. (apnews.com)

• If the rotation does not occur in April 2027, this cap does not apply; counting continues until replacement or resignation as above. (apnews.com)