Resolution criteria

Gold rose to 4,222.03 USD/t.oz on December 3, 2025, meeting the threshold. The market resolves YES if the spot price of gold closes at or above $4,222 USD/oz at the end of December 5, 2025. Resolution will be determined using the closing price from a major gold price source such as TradingEconomics, JM Bullion, or KITCO. If these sources conflict, the average of the three will be used.

Background

Gold futures opened at $4,230.50 per troy ounce on December 2, 2025, down 1% from Monday's closing price of $4,274.80. The opening price of gold is down 2% from its all-time high of $4,358, achieved in October. Bets remain high that the Fed will initiate a quarter-point rate cut next week, which typically supports gold prices.

Considerations

The threshold of $4,222 is extremely tight relative to current price levels. Until the end of 2025, gold is expected to trade between $4,029.00 and $4,276.47, meaning the target sits near the lower bound of forecasts. A single day's volatility could easily determine the outcome, making this a high-variance bet on near-term price action rather than directional conviction.