
Will I ever get to see the Donald Trump "piss tape", as alluded to by the 2017 Steele Dossier?
Will I ever get to see the Donald Trump "piss tape", as alluded to by the 2017 Steele Dossier?
28
1kṀ37722075
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
For clarity, piss tape is real. That's not being put up to question by this market.
Will I ever get to see it though?
I will resolve this Yes if my eyeballs witness the piss tape and the provenance of it convinces me as genuine (deepfakes don't count).
I hereby declare that if a convincing source of the piss tape emerges I will in due diligence take all reasonable actions to see it.
Someone can resolve this No if I die. Market closing roughly at my projected life expectancy.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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