Will Manifold Markets make it able to add a default market resolution

106Ṁ446

resolved May 22

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Details: The creator of a market would be allowed to set a default resolution. This is used if the creator doesn't resolve the market manually before time x after market close. x would also be set by the creator. This market resolves "YES" when it happens or when the market closes and the feature is announced. Otherwise it resolves "NO" on close. Overlapping suggestion (forcing default solution): https://manifold.markets/TamuzHod/will-manifold-markets-implement-a-d-42f10c4e90b1

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Will Manifold ever stop misresolving their own markets?

43% chance

When will the final resolved market on Manifold be resolved?

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Will Manifold let AI autoresolve markets by 2028?

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I'm against. Instead, make it possible for other trusted people to resolve your market.

betting no entirely because the deadline is soon; I think this would be cool and would not be surprised if it happens eventually

I like the idea but I don't think it will happen or be announced before the market closes.

predictedYES

To encourage usage charge a 50M tax on (a) markets that do not opt into it and (b) on markets that support it and go on to use it. So setting it up but manually resolving on time avoids the tax.

I am betting 100 to announce my support for such a feature. I think this subtlely solves the problem of whether to do N/A autoresolution by just letting the market creator decide. I think Yes/No/Prob/NA autoresolutions should be supported. An incorrect auto resolution is no worse than an incorrect manual resolution which is possible now. I think autoresolutions should send several warning emails to the owner beforehand.

Upsides: * Markets that default to NO (will y happen before market close?) can be forced to do so. * Creators could set default solutions if they fear they might forget about Manifold Markets. * More complex (creator defined?) mechanisms could be defined down the line for automatic market resolution. Downside: * More Options = More possibilities for bugs and more clutter * Needs to be programmed

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