Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Who was responsible for the recent Moscow terrorist attack?
31
Ṁ1.3kṀ6k
resolved Mar 23
100%96%
ISIS
0.4%
Ukrainian government or other pro-ukrainian group
0.4%
Chechens
0.6%
Crazy person/people with no discernable or claimed ideology/affiliation
1.0%
Russian false flag operation
0.2%
Individuals from the Republic of Ingushetia
1.4%Other

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ988
2Ṁ105
3Ṁ87
4Ṁ38
5Ṁ30
Sort by:

Wait... I REALLY wouldn't resolve this this early! I agree it's like... >95% likely, but it's still far too early to resolve conclusively! You could easily imagine a scenario where groups in Russia or Ukraine are passing themselves off as ISIS

@benshindel this is reminding me of the news coverage of the hospital attack in Israel! There's lots of conflicting open source intelligence and I think there's a possibility that the story may evolve over the next week or two.

@benshindel like... I don't trust Putin or the Russian narrative at all, but I'd certainly say there's a nonzero possibility that they're onto something?

@benshindel unless somebody else took over Al-Amaq and released bodycam footage from the attackers shooting people at the city hall and declaring their allegiance, it was definitely ISIS.

@benshindel If Israel had claimed responsibility for the al-Ahli hospital explosion and then released video footage of the bomber dropping the bomb I would have resolved that market much sooner

@MilfordHammerschmidt I mean, there's a long history of ISIS claiming credit for attacks that aren't theirs!!!

Mainstream media is saying that ISIS-K did it. I will probably resolve this to "ISIS" by the end of the week if there are no objections/deviations from that trend.

@MilfordHammerschmidt they released bodycam footage from the attackers, pretty indisputable at this point

@SemioticRivalry ok well i'll resolve it now in that case

bought Ṁ3 YES

Would the Freedom of Russia Legion count as a "pro-ukranian group"? What about other groups of Russian nationals who are strongly anti-war?

bought Ṁ90 YES
bought Ṁ10 YES

@SemioticRivalry Yeah, I mean all branches of Islamic State w/ that answer

U.S. warns citizens in Russia about threat of Moscow attacks (ny1.com)

If this was something that came to the attention of US intelligence and they publicly warned of it, strongly suggests to me that it's not a random lone wolf, or a Ukranian operation.