Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if LeCun's startup reaches a valuation of $100M or higher by December 31, 2027. Valuation will be determined by the most recent funding round, acquisition price, or public market valuation (if applicable) as of the resolution date. If the startup is acquired or merges before reaching $100M valuation, the deal valuation at close determines the outcome. If the startup dissolves or becomes inactive before the deadline, the market resolves NO.

Background

Yann LeCun is leaving his job as Meta's chief AI scientist at the end of the year after 12 years at the company, where he was the founding director of Fundamental AI Research (FAIR). LeCun received the Turing Award in 2018 for his work on deep learning and is often referred to as one of the three "Godfathers of AI". His startup will pursue research on advanced forms of AI that can "understand the physical world, have persistent memory, can reason, and can plan complex action sequences"—known as "world models." LeCun is in early discussions to raise funding for the new venture, and Meta will partner with the new startup.

Considerations

AI funding hit record levels in 2024, with world models emerging as a hot research area. However, LeCun believes it could take up to a decade for world models to reach maturity, which may impact near-term commercialization and valuation growth. Top labs and startups like Google DeepMind and World Labs are also developing world models, indicating competitive pressure in this space.