MANIFOLD
Will uranium spot price (15m trailing avg, 3m lag) exceed $95/lb by Mar 2027?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ15
2027
57%
chance

This market resolves YES if the uranium spot price averaged over the last 15 months (excluding the last 3 months) exceeds $95 per pound U3O8 by 2027-03-31.

Measurement methodology:

  • Calculate average uranium spot price during the 15-month period ending 3 months before the settlement date

  • For 2027-03-31 settlement: measure average price from 2026-10-02 to 2027-12-31

  • Use daily spot price data from authoritative uranium market sources

  • "Spot price" means uranium oxide (U3O8) spot price, not long-term contract prices

YES if:

  • Verified average spot price in the measurement window is ≥$95/lb

  • Multiple sources confirm pricing through the period

NO if:

  • Average spot price remains below $95/lb

  • Only peak/spot prices (not average) would exceed threshold

Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. UxC (The Ux Consulting Company) weekly spot price indicators

  2. TradeTech Nuclear Fuel Weekly Spot Price Indicator

  3. Numerco nuclear fuel price reports

  4. Cameco uranium market data disclosures

  5. Major commodity data providers (S&P Global, Bloomberg)

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