MANIFOLD
Will Cameco realized U price (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed $85.0/lb by Mar 2027?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ10
2027
50%
chance

This market resolves YES if Cameco's average realized uranium price over the last 15 months (excluding the last 3 months) exceeds $85.0 per pound U3O8 by 2027-03-31.

Measurement methodology:

  • Calculate average realized price during the 15-month period ending 3 months before the settlement date

  • For 2027-03-31 settlement: measure from 2026-10-02 to 2027-12-31

  • Realized price = Total uranium revenue (USD) ÷ Total uranium sales volume (lbs)

  • Convert revenue from CAD to USD using period-average exchange rate

  • Sum quarterly figures from Cameco segment reporting

YES if:

  • Verified average realized price in measurement window is ≥$85.0/lb

  • Calculated from reported revenue and sales volume in quarterly earnings

NO if:

  • Average realized price remains below $85.0/lb

  • Only spot price (not realized price) would exceed threshold

Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. Cameco quarterly earnings releases (uranium segment revenue and sales volume)

  2. Cameco MD&A filings (detailed segment reporting)

  3. Bank of Canada for CAD/USD exchange rates (period average)

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