This market resolves YES if the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) publishes data — in either its bi-annual World Copper Forecast press release (typically released in April and October each year) or its monthly Copper Bulletin — showing a full-year 2026 global refined copper market deficit of 500,000 tonnes or greater.

What is being measured: Full-year 2026 global refined copper market balance (production minus consumption). Positive = surplus, negative = deficit. A deficit of 500,000 tonnes or more means a balance of -500,000 tonnes or worse.

Methodology: The ICSG's unadjusted world balance figure is used as the primary metric, consistent with ICSG's headline reporting convention. (The ICSG also publishes an adjusted balance that accounts for Chinese bonded stock changes — this market uses the unadjusted figure.)

YES if:

• Any ICSG publication before December 31, 2026 reports full-year 2026 global refined copper deficit at or above 500,000 tonnes (unadjusted world balance at or below -500 kt)

NO if:

• No ICSG publication before December 31, 2026 reports a 2026 deficit at or above 500,000t

• ICSG data shows a surplus, or a deficit smaller than 500,000 tonnes

Resolution timeline:

• Primary: ICSG October 2026 World Copper Forecast press release (Lisbon meeting, est. early October 2026). This is the ICSG's bi-annual forecast incorporating full-year 2026 data.

• Fallback: Most recent ICSG monthly Copper Bulletin available before December 31, 2026 that includes a full-year 2026 balance estimate.

• Hard close: December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if no qualifying ICSG publication by that date.

Resolution sources (priority order):

1. ICSG bi-annual World Copper Forecast press release (icsg.org — April and October meetings)

2. ICSG monthly Copper Bulletin (icsg.org)

The ICSG is the recognized intergovernmental body for copper market statistics and the standard reference for full-year refined copper balance data.