This market resolves YES if synthetic graphite active anode material (AAM) China spot price exceeds 4000 USD/t on May 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Synthetic graphite active anode material (AAM) spot price, China domestic market, on the settlement date.
YES if: Synthetic graphite AAM China price >= 4000 USD per tonne on May 31, 2026 NO if: Synthetic graphite AAM China price < 4000 USD per tonne on May 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Asian Metal synthetic graphite anode material price (asianmetal.com)
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) synthetic graphite price (smm.cn)
Fastmarkets graphite AAM assessment (fastmarkets.com)
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence graphite AAM index (benchmarkminerals.com)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ13 |
Proposed resolution: YES Actual value: 4,290.00 USD/t
Rationale: The skeptic's objection about using May 22 as a proxy for May 31 is technically valid but not load-bearing given the evidence quality. The research shows stable month-over-month pricing with no evidence of volatility in late May 2026, and commodity markets typically don't experience dramatic weekly swings without catalysts. The 9-day gap with stable conditions provides reasonable confidence for the threshold determination.
Voter outcome: YES (share 1.00). Skeptic objection: The resolution uses
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