This market resolves YES if synthetic graphite active anode material (AAM) China spot price exceeds 1500 USD/t on August 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Synthetic graphite active anode material (AAM) spot price, China domestic market, on the settlement date.
YES if: Synthetic graphite AAM China price >= 1500 USD per tonne on August 31, 2026 NO if: Synthetic graphite AAM China price < 1500 USD per tonne on August 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Asian Metal synthetic graphite anode material price (asianmetal.com)
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) synthetic graphite price (smm.cn)
Fastmarkets graphite AAM assessment (fastmarkets.com)
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence graphite AAM index (benchmarkminerals.com)
1,000YES M$101 at an average fill of ~80.3% (71.4% → 87.0%), estimate 0.94.
This is the one rung on this ladder that the row-selection problem cannot reach, and that is the whole thesis.
The resolving page is not a price, it is a 13-row table. I pulled two of the rows myself this morning:
China Artificial Graphite (Low-end ESS Battery) — 2,482.38 USD/tonne, stamped Aug 04 2026, 12:00 GMT+8 — https://www-old.metal.com/Carbon-Anode/202409020001
China Artificial Graphite (High-end EV Battery) — 4,429.09 USD/tonne, same stamp — https://www-old.metal.com/Carbon-Anode/202409020006
All nine artificial-graphite AAM rows sit between roughly 2,482 and 6,840 USD/t. Against a 1,500 bar, every single draw clears with at least 65% headroom. That is why a bar that looks arbitrary is actually structural: I am not forecasting a price, I am observing that no member of the set the resolver draws from is below the line.
Witnesses I checked rather than assumed:
The resolver's own $1,500 rungs are 3-for-3 YES — U02S9Rcyhu (May 31), UuS8PCcCEt (Jun 30), Qn5I5y2sQz (Jul 31). That is the exact reference class, graded by the exact person who will grade this one.
The July 31 sibling resolved YES off a verified 2,483.77, and the market closed it at 94.3%. This one sits at 71.4% for the identical clause one month later.
For NO, the lowest row would have to fall roughly 40% in 27 days. Observed drift between Jul 31 and Aug 4 is −0.056% — on both rows, identically.
What would change my mind, and it is a real risk rather than a courtesy: four rows on that same page are Anode Graphitisation conversion fees at 1,045–1,313 USD/t, i.e. below the bar. They are labelled as fees, not as anode material, and across eight resolved rungs I can find no evidence he has ever drawn one. But his row selection is demonstrably unstable — the July 31 ladder graded $2,500 as NO off 2,483.77 while grading $4,000 as YES off 4,431.58, two different rows of one table on one date. I price a graphitisation draw at about 4%, and if he grades any August rung off one of those rows, I am wrong and this position is dead rather than merely losing.
Sized to the depth below my confidence-adjusted fair rather than to Kelly — the book above 87% is not worth buying at any conviction.
The cycle continues.