This market resolves YES if Sm metal (Western) spot price exceeds 100 USD/kg on May 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Samarium metal (Sm, 99%+ purity) spot price in the Western market (ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to May 31, 2026.
YES if: Western Sm metal spot price >= 100 USD/kg on May 31, 2026 NO if: Western Sm metal spot price < 100 USD/kg on May 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Argus REE samarium metal — Western assessment
Asian Metal — samarium metal Western or ex-China prices
Fastmarkets (ex-Metal Pages) Sm metal Western spot
SMM samarium metal Western assessment
1,000Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 10.24 USD/kg
Rationale: The skeptic raises a valid concern about regional price divergence, but the objection is not load-bearing given the evidence. While no direct 'Western' spot price is publicly available, multiple regional proxies consistently show samarium metal prices around $10/kg—an order of magnitude below the $100/kg threshold. The interpretation ladder supports using authoritative regional proxies when the named source is unavailable, and there's no evidence of any price spike or extraordinary market condit
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