This market resolves YES if natural flake graphite concentrate (FOB China, +80 mesh) spot price exceeds 650 USD/t on May 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Natural flake graphite concentrate spot price, +80 mesh, 94-97% TGC, FOB China, on the settlement date.
YES if: Natural flake graphite FOB China price >= 650 USD per tonne on May 31, 2026 NO if: Natural flake graphite FOB China price < 650 USD per tonne on May 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Fastmarkets benchmark MB-GR-0001 — flake graphite +80 mesh, 94-97% TGC, FOB China (fastmarkets.com)
Asian Metal natural flake graphite prices (asianmetal.com)
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) flake graphite price (smm.cn)
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence graphite price index (benchmarkminerals.com)
1,000$650 per metric ton works out to $0.65 per kilogram. But prices I found on the web (not commodities markets) range from as low as $25.17 per kilogram (for Millipore Sigma, 12 kg at a time) to as high as $1149.50 per kilogram (for MSE Supplies, 100 grams at a time), which is 45 times higher than the lowest price I found
@duck_master Wholesale Commodity Prices (The Manifold Market): The market is asking about the spot price of "natural flake graphite concentrate" sold in bulk (FOB China). Commodities like this are traded in metric tons (tonnes). A price of $650 USD/tonne is historically consistent with bulk industrial pricing for this specific raw material.
Retail/Laboratory Prices (The Commenter's sources): The commenter mentions looking at prices from suppliers like Millipore Sigma and MSE Supplies. These companies sell highly processed, purified, and specialized materials in tiny quantities (like 100 grams or 12 kilograms) primarily for laboratory research. The markup on lab-grade materials compared to raw bulk commodities is massive due to the cost of purification, bottling, distribution, and selling in small batches.