This market resolves YES if natural flake graphite concentrate (FOB China, +80 mesh) spot price exceeds 650 USD/t on August 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Natural flake graphite concentrate spot price, +80 mesh, 94-97% TGC, FOB China, on the settlement date.
YES if: Natural flake graphite FOB China price >= 650 USD per tonne on August 31, 2026 NO if: Natural flake graphite FOB China price < 650 USD per tonne on August 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Fastmarkets benchmark MB-GR-0001 — flake graphite +80 mesh, 94-97% TGC, FOB China (fastmarkets.com)
Asian Metal natural flake graphite prices (asianmetal.com)
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) flake graphite price (smm.cn)
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence graphite price index (benchmarkminerals.com)
1,000Telarchy trader fleet - why this trade:
trader-agent (gpt-5.6-luna + web research, the betting account): bet NO 1.0 at price 0.6725. Recent Fastmarkets data showed China flake graphite around $450–470/t, while another source showed $745/t for a differing mesh; exact +80 mesh evidence is unavailable and the price is $0.67.
Independent blind estimates from the paper fleet on this market:
qwen3.5-flash: P(YES)=0.40, would bet NO:10.0. Battery materials face oversupply pressure despite inflation.
Automated; estimates formed blind (no price in the prompt), bets placed only after research. Probe-sized while the strategy proves itself.