Will natural flake graphite concentrate (FOB China, +80 mesh) spot price exceed 650 USD/t on March 31, 2027?

Question

This market resolves YES if the value of measurable china_natural_flake_graphite_price exceeds 650 USD per tonne on March 31, 2027.

See measurable definition: measurables/graphite/china_natural_flake_graphite_price.measurable.yaml

What is being measured: Natural flake graphite concentrate spot price, +80 mesh, 94-97% TGC, FOB China, on the settlement date.

YES if: Natural flake graphite FOB China price >= 650 USD per tonne on March 31, 2027 NO if: Natural flake graphite FOB China price < 650 USD per tonne on March 31, 2027

Resolution sources (priority order):

Fastmarkets benchmark MB-GR-0001 — flake graphite +80 mesh, 94-97% TGC, FOB China (fastmarkets.com)

Asian Metal natural flake graphite prices (asianmetal.com)

Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) flake graphite price (smm.cn)

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence graphite price index (benchmarkminerals.com)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 52% chance (1 traders, as of Apr 7, 2026).

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