Will China's State Reserve Bureau announce a metals stockpile release by December 31, 2027?

Question

This market resolves YES if, on or before December 31, 2027, China's state reserve authority (the State Reserve Bureau / National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration) formally announces a release of state stockpiles of copper, aluminium, lead, zinc, nickel, or another base metal, otherwise NO.

YES if: a published reserve-bureau, MIIT, or NDRC notice announces a release. NO if: no formal announcement. Rumoured or unconfirmed releases, and stockpile purchases, do not count.

Resolution sources (priority order):

Official announcements via Xinhua / MIIT / NDRC

Reuters / Bloomberg reporting

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 22% chance (1 traders, as of Nov 3, 2026).

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