Will China's gallium export price (FOB China) be above $429/kg on June 30, 2027?

Question

This market resolves YES if the 99.99% gallium metal FOB China export spot price is above 429 USD/kg on June 30, 2027, otherwise NO. If no price is published that day, the most recent prior published price is used.

YES if: the price is strictly above 429 USD/kg. NO if: the price is at or below 429 USD/kg.

Resolution sources (priority order):

Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) gallium FOB China price (metal.com)

Asian Metal gallium FOB China price

Fastmarkets gallium prices

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 59% chance (1 traders, as of Nov 3, 2026).

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