This market resolves YES if China March 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceeds 50 tonnes.
What is being measured: China monthly Sm2O3 export volume (GACC data) for the month ending March 2026, settled 2 months later to allow for GACC reporting lag.
YES if: China Sm2O3 monthly export volume >= 50 tonnes for March 2026 NO if: Export volume below 50 tonnes
Resolution sources (priority order):
GACC (General Administration of Customs, China) monthly trade data — HS 2846.90
Asian Metal — China rare earth export monthly tracker (asianmetal.com)
SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) — China REE export data
Fastmarkets / Metal Bulletin — China samarium export commentary
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ16 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1 |
Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 23.90 tonnes
Rationale: The skeptic raises valid concerns about research quality, but the objection doesn't overcome the substantive evidence. Multiple independent industry sources consistently cite 23.9 tonnes from Chinese customs data (HS 2846901940), with no conflicting figures found. While direct primary source access would be ideal, the convergence of secondary sources citing the same customs methodology provides reasonable confidence. The threshold miss is substantial (23.9 vs 50 tonnes), making minor data revisi
Sources read: